The Likely Outcomes of the 2010 General Election

At the time of writing it is mid morning of 7th May and I am still following the closest General Election in living memory. We have entered a power vacuum. Who presently runs Britain, who is making the decisions and what of our "first past the post" electoral system? Now the horse trading begins.

Conservative leader David Cameron has come closest to victory however an outright majority of seats in the House of Commons seems to have eluded him. With approximately 36% of the total votes cast, the Conservatives are the largest single party. However with a combined 62% of votes, the Liberal Democrats and Labour could proportionately represent the largest block in Parliament. However as things stand 36% gives the Tories 291 seats and 62% results in 299 Labour and Liberal Democrat seats. Neither result leads to a majority of 326 parlimentary seats with which to form the next government.

What should each of the three main parties do? As I sit down to ponder each scenario with feet outstretched on my footstool and an expresso in hand my overriding view is that coalition government is the most likely outcome.

David Cameron needs to form a coalition with like minded representatives of the Scottish Nationalists and Ulster Parties where potentially 16 seats are up for grabs. Assuming the Conservatives gain 308 - 310 seats of their own, then a combination of support from these two parties may just enable the Tories to form a new administration. If Cameron is able to secure the support of any other newly elected independent MPs he may just secure the majority he requires.

Having said all that I believe a new government consisting of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and a combination of the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists with some independents is also a real possibility. As stated, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have a genuine mandate from 62% of the electorate. And the reason for this analysis is that both parties are in favour of a form of proportional representation as an urgent solution to the inequalities of the present electoral system. Potentially, Gordon Brown of Labour and Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats will form a coalition to demand that immediate legislation is introduced to remove the "first past the post system" which disenfranchises a large proportion of the UK electorate. With a majority of more than 326 supporting MPs, the voting system may be changed and another election called. Then we will then see enhanced democracy in Britain and a new era of coalition and concensus government.

The author is taking a close interest in the General Election campaign as he runs a number of furniture businesses whose future prosperity depends on the right calls being made by whichever government comes to power.